Marine Le Pen
I would organize a referendum on this subject. And based on what happened in the negotiations that I would undertake, I would tell the French, "Listen, I obtained what I wanted, and I think we should stay in the European Union," or, "I did not get what I wanted, and I believe there is no other solution but to leave the European Union.
Marine Le Pen, September 2016
Europe is on the edge, and for good reason. BREXIT, the refugee crisis, terrorists’ attacks and Trump’s victory have fractured the continent. France's national elections on April 23 could push Europe over the edge.
A victory for the National Front's Marine Le Pen, in the first round of France’s presidential elections, might trigger the breakup of the European Union.
Le Pen won't win a 50 percent plus majority on April 23. Nevertheless, as one of the top two vote getters she will qualify for the final runoff on May 7. That's when anything can happen.
Headed into March, Le Pen led the polls with 25 percent of voter support. En Marche! candidate and former Minister of the Economy, Emmanuel Macron was one point behind at 24%.
Scandal has engulfed the self-immolating campaign of Francois Fillon, the conservative nominee of "The Republicans." He was polling at 21 percent before the police began investigating him for paying his wife and friends $700,000 euros for jobs that didn’t exist.
A week later the press revealed that Fillon received an interest-free, undeclared loan of 50,000 euros from a billionaire businessman in 2013. His supporters are scrambling for the exits.
At the bottom of the heap is Socialist Party candidate Benoit Hamon polling at 16 per cent. All the sins of French President Hollande's pathetic administration are being visited on his campaign.
In the midst of the populist wave washing over Europe, four established presidential candidates--two former presidents and two former prime ministers — have dropped out or been rejected by the voters.
2017 is the year of the outsider. The masses are in the mood to punish the established order. That's why an upset victory for Le Pen and her anti-Islamic, anti-immigration, anti-globalist, Euroskeptic “France First” agenda is not out of the question.
After the February BREXIT vote, the impact of a Le Pen victory will swing Europe's political momentum further toward the dissolution of the EU. It will also put more wind in the sails of the emerging uber nationalist right-wing parties.
France has Europe's third largest economy, it's second largest nuclear arsenal and is a leading EU's contributor to NATO. Thus Le Pen's political impact on Europe will be multi-dimensional.
In a September 2016 interview about French-EU relations, Le Pen said “I would tell the French, Listen, I obtained what I wanted and I think we could stay in the European Union or I did not get what I wanted and I believe there is no other solution but to leave the European Union.”
Le Pen's position on the EU highlights the deepening split in Europe between the pro-globalist wing headed by German Chancellor Angel Merkyl and the economic nationalist wing led by Nigel Farage of UKIP.
The ramifications of Le Pen's ultra-nationalist position have not been lost on Washington. A Le Pen presidency would move France much closer to Russia. Le Pen insist that "Russia and France have a shared history and strong cultural affinity. And strategically, there is no reason not to deepen relations Russia. The only reason we don't is because America forbids it."
Le Pen assertions that France must reclaim it's economic and political independence can be fashioned into a compelling case. With Europe tottering on the brink of financial insolvency, Le Pen's threat to lead France out of the EU's single currency could invite chaos across Europe. And why wouldn't France return to the franc?
The IMF has declared that the Euro is overvauled by six percent but undervalued by 15 percent to its main European competitor Germany. That 21 point spread is killing France's competiveness in Europe. As Le Pen observed "The euro is a currency created by Germany, for Germany. It's a suit that only fits Germany."
With an unemployment rate in France of 10%, La Pen also wants major changes in the EU’s “Posted Worker Directive” policy. The PWD that allows the free movement of workers between EU countries has brought thousands of skilled lower-wage Eastern European workers from Poland and Hungary.
Le Pen's hardcore anti-immigration stance cannot be underestimated. In the wake of the devastating terrorist attacks the clamor against the EU's open border policy is real.
So is the France's anti-Islamic backlash. One-third of Europe's Muslims live in France and the cultural wars over the issue of adopting a multi-cultural approach or assimilation is raging. There is every reason to believe that the currents of white nationalism will grow stronger over the short run.
France is a ticking time bomb. But unlike Donald Trump, Marine Le Pen is not an uninformed, flame throwing demagogue. An attorney by training, Le Pen won her first political office in 1998 as a regional councilor. In 2011 she succeeded her father as leader of the National Front.
In six years she has guided the National Front from the political margins to the mainstream--from an opposition party to a party positioned to govern France. That journey included expelling her father from the party when he said that the "Holocaust" was a "detail" in history.
Le Pen's candidacy remains a long shot. France will have to shift from a center-left to a center-right country. Even if Marine Le Pen's presidential bid is turned back, she could still garner enough support to force a national referendum on France leaving the EU (FREXIT) and jettisoning the euro single currency.
Since 1789, France has been the cradle of European revolution. In 2017, they may like up to that reputation again.
Le Pen's French Revolution: The Battle for Europe
For the first time in 50 years the two major parties; The Republicans and the
Socialist Party fail to the make the second round run-off.
Marine Le Pen and the National Front moves the anti-EU, anti-globalist and anti immigrant right wing from the periphery to the mainstream of France's fragmented political landscape. Le Pen garnered 35% of the vote and emerged as the "opposition party."
In June 2017, elections will be held for the 550 member National Assembly. It will be a trial of strength for Macron's new party La Marche and for Le Pen's National Front.
Serbian presidential election
Europe’s pariah in the 1990s, it has been long expected that Serbia would come back into the fold, but now, with Russian flexing its muscles, the country is poised to make a choice between east and west. Snap parliamentary elections held this year saw a landslide for the free-market conservatives of the Progressive party. The result was widely interpreted as a victory for pro-EU forces, and incumbent president Tomislav Nikoli? will seek to continue this by defeating Vojislav Šešelj of the Serbian Radical party.
June 23, 2017
Czech general election
Currently polling second in the Czech republic is Ano, meaning ‘Yes’, a party that grew out of the Action of Dissatisfied Citizens. Led by billionaire media tycoon Andrej Babiš, one of the country’s richest men, the party is mildly eurosceptical. Babiš gave a cautious welcome to Trump, saying Americans “think they’ve had enough of corruption and the old ways” and expressed hope that the EU would “solve the migration problem” by working with Trump to end conflict in the Middle East and “allow them to return to their homes”.
September 11, 2017
Norwegian general election
Floating on a sea of oil, Norway has stood outside the EU primarily because it wants – and can afford – to chart its own independent course. For decades that course has been defined by social democracy, even when the centre right is in power, underpinned by a vast sovereign wealth fund. But there are other voices straining to be heard in Norway, just as there have been in other Nordic countries such as Sweden, Denmark and Finland. Siv Jensen’s Progress party is currently the junior partner in government and the free-market party is now champing at the bit for 2017. The party has been able to tempt away traditional Labour party voters with its mixture of plans for tax cuts and infrastructure building, married to implementing stricter immigration controls. Its plans may be scuppered, however, if its Conservative partners lose out to Labour as the main party.
Between August and October 2017
German federal election, 2017
Since Donald Trump won the US election and in the face of growing hard-right and even far-right parties in Europe, some have claimed Germany’s conservative chancellor Angela Merkel is the last bulwark of social liberalism in Europe.
Quite a weight to be put on one set of shoulders, and Merkel is not without her critics. Loved abroad for opening Germany’s borders to refugees, at home many have criticised her for the same thing. In September the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which campaigns on an anti-immigrant party and wants to leave the euro, beat Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) to second place in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election, though both won 18 seats in the parliament. Other states such as Baden-Württemberg and even Berlin, both of which saw the CDU outpoll the AfD, nonetheless saw the right wing insurgents win significant numbers of seats and the AfD is now represented in ten of Germany’s sixteen regional parliaments
Speaking after the Berlin election, which was won by the centre left Social Democratic Party, Merkel said that she accepted responsibility for the “bitter defeat” and acknowledge the CDU vote was split due to the immigration issue.
“If I could, I would turn back time for many, many years, to prepare better,” she said.
Merkel is also faces criticism from her party’s own sister party in Bavaria, the Christian Social Union, which is more conservative than Merkel’s CDU. She has vowed to fight on, though, announcing in November that she would seek a forth term as chancellor. Merkel said she realised she faced “challenges from all sides”, but particularly from the right and noted that Germany had become polarised.
Europe's 2017 Elections Calendar
January 22, 2017
French Socialist Party Primary
With the unpopular incumbent François Hollande not standing for re-election, the SP elects Benoît Hamon. The staunchly leftwing rebel outsider wants to introduce a universal basic income, legalize cannabis and tax robots.
Hamon wins by a 58% to 42% margin over the centrist former prime minister Manuel Valls.
March 15, 2017
The Netherlands General Election
In March 15 the famously liberal Netherlands went to the polls to elect 150 members to the House of Representative. Incumbent Prime Minister Mark Rutte's People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy carried the election winning 21.3% of the vote and 33 seats, a net loss of 8 seats.
Geert Wilders, Leader
Party of Freedom
White nationalist Geert Wilders, and his Party for Freedom ran second, winning 13% of the vote an 20 seats, five more than in in the 2012 elections.
Wilders came to prominence after Pim Fortuyn, the anti-immigration /anti multicultural critic was assassinated by a green-left activist.
Wilders argued for an end to immigration from Muslim countries, closing Islamic schools, a moratorium on building mosques and the banning of expressions of faith that are “contrary to the country’s order”. He was temoprarily banned from entering the UK. and is on trial for inciting racial hatred. Judgement will be passed on December 9.
May 7, 2017
French presidential election
In possibly the most critical election held in Europe this year, France's center left coalition elects the youngest Prime Minister in French history, 39 year old Emanuel Macron.
Thought Leadership Center
The Euro Alt White - 2016 Europe and Nations and Freedom Conference in Milan - Italy, Janice Atkinson of UK, Lorenzo Fontana of Northern Italy League, Tomio Akamura of Czech Republic, Marcus Pretzell of Germany, Hans Christian Strache of Austria, Harald Vilimsky of Austria and Marine Le Pen of France.
Victor Orban - Prime Minister of Hungary
The Alt White International